Predicting Tour de France stage-winning times

Predicting Tour de France stage-winning times with continuous power and drag area models and high speeds in 2013

From Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part P: Journal of Sports Engineering and Technology

After a decade since the authors first attempt1 at modeling the Tour de France, they felt by 2012 that they were getting better at predicting stage-winning times. This article presents comparisons between their predicted stage-winning times and actual stage-winning times for the 2012 and 2013 Tour de France races. The goal was to predict the winning time for a given Tour de France stage, not the winning time for any particular cyclist. For the 2013 race they moved from a previously used discrete power model to a continuous power model.

Abstract

We present comparisons between our predicted stage-winning times and actual stage-winning times for the 2012 and 2013 Tour de France races. The former race represented our last use of a decade-old discrete power and drag area models; the continuous power and drag area models used for the latter race represent significant changes in our modeling. Although our new model worked well when applied to the 2012 Tour de France, it did not fare so well in 2013, especially during the second week of the race when speeds were quite high.

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Article details
Brian Alexander Ramsey and John Eric Goff
Predicting Tour de France stage-winning times with continuous power and drag area models and high speeds in 2013 Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part P: Journal of Sports Engineering and Technology June 2014 228: 125-135, first published on January 8, 2014 doi:10.1177/1754337113515207

 

 

 

     
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